This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that will be the previous UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools with this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful high trophy are always my favourite contests to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a fantastic amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best struggle to get into cash games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can pile the main event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is your must drama of the two. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD in order that he wins he is going to score highly and based on Vegas he has a 77% probability of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high floor, but he likely has the highest ceiling onto the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we found a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a end to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I like him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we are getting there, and I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become one of the very well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be so not just could he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I believe if he does win this battle he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favourite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose because I think he loses, I am really picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he is $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I don’t see him becoming over 10x that wages. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. If he scores around this area again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP because the other guys because $9k range likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick outlook for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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