This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests a bit and I enjoy the new selection of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into money games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m not loving this slate for cash games, and that I was just going to pick the main event stack for my money game play of the week. However, I can see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young creates a fantastic cash game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has because I really do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he’s 100-point upside into a conclusion, and I also think he can complete this battle. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he is my money game play of the week instead of my GPP playwith. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only real way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter on the mat, and I believe he can hang the feet too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any floor game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 things, but this is why he’s my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many things he has, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he lost a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we’d simply have to hit our other areas. We don’t need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside since he will be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him getting numerous takedowns as well as a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot away from a big name who could be more popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to stay position for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I believe Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair amount of shots. In addition, I think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that may not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I’ve picked him my fade every time he has fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey could score highly is by obtaining a win. He does not strike at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and that he won’t be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter once I roster them and together with his $7.9k price tag, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 54-34 for +177.13u (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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